Macron is a modern-day Cassandra, doomed to be right

The French president is correct to want to keep the Russians guessing, even if his ideas do risk playing into Putin’s hands

Whether it is fair to call Emmanuel Macron a modern-day Cassandra, only time will tell. The original Trojan priestess of that name was doomed to predict disaster but was never to be believed. Will that prove to be the French president’s fate after his warning this week that the West may have to step in to save Ukraine if Russia makes a military breakthrough?
Macron is reported to have shown maps of the current battlefield in Ukraine to French opposition party leaders to illustrate to them the points of potential Russian advance. In doing so, he said that there should be “no more red lines” on France’s involvement, even hinting – as a consequence – that Western boots might have to go on the ground. 
Has he overstated his case, perhaps for domestic political reasons? It’s certainly a remarkable turnaround from Macron’s early position on the war. He seems now to be saying what was once considered inconceivable. 
Today, even Britain, the cheerleader for Ukraine since February 2022, baulks at anything resembling a more direct intervention, with Lord Cameron earlier in the week urging Europe to rein in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, to get these crises to the “best possible place” by the time of the US presidential election. 
There can be no doubt that supporting Ukraine must remain the top priority for European countries to contain further Russian aggression. Why else would Finland and Sweden have chosen this moment in their histories to join Nato? As matters stand, there is no obvious scope for a negotiated settlement to the Ukrainian war – the stated objectives of presidents Putin and Zelensky remain mutually irreconcilable. 
A year ago, Western countries agonised for too long over whether to send Ukraine F-16 aircraft, main battle tanks, long-range missiles and copious quantities of ammunition. Meanwhile, the Russians were not idle, energetically creating long and deep lines of well-constructed defence. 
It was unsurprising, therefore, that the much-anticipated counter offensive by Ukraine became the stalemate that existed over this winter. Now as the weather warms, the shortage of ammunition on the Ukrainian side has given Russia an opportunity to push forward. Against this background, Macron’s position is understandable.
One of the problems during this conflict has been that Nato has been far too clear about what it will not do, instead of what it will do. This has arisen largely out of openly-expressed fears about what the Russian response would be were the West be seen to escalate too far. Macron is right to try to seize back the strategic initiative from the Russians, as part of his theory of “strategic ambivalence”, even if some will quibble with the precise course of action he has intimated. 
As eye-catching as his rhetoric may be, however, there is always the danger that it could backfire, in the same way the German airforce leak was a serious gaffe. The mere suggestion of Western troops already being in Ukraine or the possibility that they could be deployed there either for training or combat purposes risks playing into Vladimir Putin’s agenda. 
The Russian ruler’s domestic propaganda asserts that this war is promulgated by Nato, forcing the defence of Mother Russia from Western aggression. In turn, this enables Putin to make nuclear threats that frighten Europeans who are opposed to further intervention.
What is certain, regardless, is we must urgently ramp up military support to Ukraine in terms of increased supplies of intelligence, weapons, ammunition and training. There is no time to be lost. The security of Europe, not just Ukraine, is at stake – even Nato itself.
General The Lord Dannatt is a former Chief of the General Staff